Mid-Year Snapshot: Winnipeg, Manitoba, CRE Remains Steady

By Alex Akman, Chief Operating Officer, Shindico/CORFAC International

Half of 2026 is behind us, so it is a good moment to check the numbers. Here is how Winnipeg commercial real estate is performing, sector by sector. As of year-end 2025, Shindico/CORFAC International owned or managed 171 properties totalling 8 million square feet. With assets in every major asset class, Shindico is positioned to read the market from the inside, and the mid-year read is steady. Winnipeg avoids the boom-and-bust swings seen elsewhere, helped by a metro population approaching 1 million and a supply pipeline that stays limited because construction costs are high and there is little condo overhang.

Industrial stays tight as values climb

Industrial is the tightest corner of the market and one of the tightest in the country. Vacancy sat between 2.9 and 3.6 percent at quarter-end, with net asking rents around $11 per square foot. Winnipeg led the country in industrial sale-price growth over the year, up more than 16 percent, and cap rates fell here while most markets held steady, landing near 6.0 to 6.5 percent for Class A.

Retail is stronger than it appears

Winnipeg retail vacancy has risen to about 5.5 percent from the low-3s a couple of years ago, but most of that traces to the downtown Hudson's Bay closure, which took roughly 2 percent of the city's retail footprint offline. Strip that out, and the picture is healthy: enclosed malls carry the highest vacancy near 10 percent, power centres about 5 percent, and needs-based formats around 3 percent. Almost no net new retail has been built here in a generation, and that scarcity keeps upward pressure on rents.

Office stays in transition

Office continues to struggle, with high downtown vacancy and Class A Skywalk-connected buildings outperforming the rest. Suburban space has generally held up better than downtown. Class A rents have edged up to about $19 per square foot, and Colliers reported that leasing recovered from the previous quarter's negative absorption.

Multifamily holds firm with disciplined rent growth

Multifamily remains the most sought-after asset class in the city. CMHC put Winnipeg purpose-built vacancy at 2.8 percent for 2025, below the national 3.1 percent. Yardi's Q2 2026 data held Winnipeg at 2.8 percent, second-lowest among major markets after Halifax, with in-place rents up 3.6 percent year over year, second-highest in the country.

Put the four sectors together, and the map is clear. Industrial and multifamily are tight and likely to stay that way, retail is healthier than its headline once Hudson's Bay is set aside, and office is in transition, with quality and connectivity the dividing line. The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25 percent since October 2025, and global capital continues to treat Canada as a market of safety and stability.

Sources: Market figures: CBRE Canada Office and Industrial Figures Q2 2026; Colliers National Market Snapshot Q2 2026; Capital Commercial Retail Market Snapshot Q4 2025; CMHC 2025 Rental Market Report (Winnipeg CMA); Yardi Canadian National Multifamily Report Q3 2026 (data as of Q2 2026); CBRE Canadian Cap Rates & Investment Insights Q2 2026 (cap rate estimate ranges).