Transaction Momentum Builds as Rising Costs and AI Reshape the Industry

Commercial real estate transaction activity continues to gain momentum despite persistent economic hurdles, according to members who responded to CORFAC's Fall 2026 Market Survey. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents reported increased transaction activity this fall compared to earlier in the year, signaling resilience across the global network of independent brokerage firms.

Industrial Leads, but Office and Retail Show Resilience

Industrial/manufacturing and warehouse/distribution remain the strongest sectors driving business for about 70% of respondents, consistent with spring survey findings. However, office activity showed a noteworthy uptick, with 50% of respondents identifying it as a key business driver, followed by retail (39%), land (37%) and investment sales (34%).

Respondents shared recent transactions illustrating the diversity of business drivers, including a 610,000-square-foot distribution center lease in Nevada, a 160,000-SF office lease in London's Midtown, a 250,000-SF retail leasing project in Delaware, a $22 million distribution center sale in Illinois and a 270,000-sf lease expansion for a logistics company in Delaware.

In the spring market survey, respondents cited office downsizing and experiential retail as driving business. This fall, respondents point to demand for quality office space and development opportunities across multiple property types filling the pipeline.

Client Expansions Fuel New Business

A top indicator of market strength is the sources of new business, according to survey respondents. More than 80% of respondents identified existing client expansions as a recent business driver while 62% cited new companies locating in their markets. Nearly half reported that business is being generated through existing client and allied service provider referrals.

Positive employment trends (59%), AI and new technology (46%) and population migration into their markets (43%) were among the most frequently cited factors driving localized transaction activity.

Looking ahead to 2027, respondents see the greatest opportunities in owner/investor transactions (45%) and corporate relocations and expansions (39%). Other opportunities mentioned include distressed asset refinancing, AI-enabled prospecting and property redevelopment.

Rising Costs Add Complications

Despite the increasing transaction activity, inflation and interest rates remain the leading negative influences on business health according to 79% of respondents. Rising costs for construction materials and labor, tariffs and trade policies and labor shortages were cited as additional concerns.

One respondent described a growing disconnect between buyers and sellers: “Sellers are not willing to reprice, so there is starting to be some stagnation in the market.”

Others cited financing difficulties, power availability, entitlement delays and rising operating expenses as obstacles to closing transactions. These pressures suggest that while demand is returning, completing transactions remains challenging.

AI Is the Defining Disruptor

Artificial intelligence represents one of the survey's most interesting findings: Nearly 46% of respondents identified AI and new technology among the leading positive influences on transaction activity, while only 5% selected technology-related change as a negative factor.

When asked what will change most in commercial real estate over the next five years, respondents repeatedly pointed to AI's potential to transform prospecting, property searches, transaction execution and the broker's role.

“More efficiencies from AI tools will make teams more nimble,” said one respondent. Another offered a more progressive perspective: “AI will eliminate catcher mitt and messenger brokers. Value-add creator brokers will use AI to prosper.”

The perspectives point to a fundamental shift toward technology-forward brokerage, while emphasizing the importance of strategic advice, relationships and expertise that technology cannot replace.

Opportunities Ahead for Independent Brokers

As the year comes to a close, members expect industrial to continue to anchor activity, office and retail to generate some opportunities and corporate expansion to support new business across multiple markets. And AI will remain an ever-present influence on how effectively and efficiently business gets done.

For CORFAC's independent brokerage firms, these trends reinforce the value of combining local market expertise, entrepreneurial agility and global collaboration to help clients navigate an increasingly complex commercial real estate environment.